Want to rival Eurostar on Channel Tunnel routes? How do you differentiate yourself?

For three weeks in late March and early April I am running a project called #CrossChannelRail that is looking at the future of long distance high speed train services through the Channel Tunnel. The future of Eurostar and any of its potential rivals if you like. A whole lot of background can be found here.

A number of potential new operators of through trains have been mentioned and rumoured: private companies Evolyn (website, news story), Virgin Trains (website, news story) and Heuro (website, news story), the Spanish state owned operator Renfe (news story) that would run open access services, and Swiss state owned operator SBB (news story) that would run in partnership with SNCF and/or Eurostar. Deutsche Bahn has said nothing for many years.

So let’s leave out SBB (as their approach is different) and Deutsche Bahn (due to lack of news), and ask ourselves: were Evolyn, Virgin Trains, Heuro or Renfe to rival Eurostar, how would they do it?

Question 1: what route(s) to run?
London St Pancras – Paris Nord and London St Pancras – Bruxelles Midi are the Eurostar core routes, and are obviously possible for rivals to Eurostar. Terminals for bag scans and passport controls are in place, and even capacity constraints at St Pancras are being worked on. But that places a new operator in direct competition with Eurostar. Extending from Bruxelles Midi via Rotterdam Centraal to Amsterdam Centraal (served by Eurostar a handful of times a day) is possible, although track capacity is a major constraint. Aim for any stations not served from London currently (Köln, Frankfurt, Lyon, Genève etc.) and you immediately run into the problem of stations not being adapted for passport controls and bag scans, and whether that is even possible. Only Marne-la-Vallée is a potential new destination with this in place already. So do you compete with Eurostar on core routes (proven, but strong incumbency) or serve new destinations (extra costs and complexity)?

Question 2: what stops to serve on the core route?
Eurostar used to serve Ebbsfleet, Ashford and Calais-Fréthun but since the COVID pandemic no longer serves those stops. The number of trains stopping at Lille Europe has been reduced, and Stratford International has never had any international services – but was designed for them. However every additional stop adds travel time and cost, and operational complexity. Is there enough of a market at these stops to justify serving them, and allowing a new operator to use that as a way to distinguish themselves?

Question 3: what trains to order?
There are essentially 4 models of trains a new operator could go for – Siemens Velaro, Hitachi Frecciarossa 1000, Talgo Avril or Alstom TGV-M. Velaro and Frecciarossa, with distributed traction (motors under the floors), could be either 16 carriage 400m long trains, or 8 carriage 200m trains that can run in pairs. Avril and TGV-M, with power cars, would be 200m trains, also able to run in pairs. We know coupled 200m trains are OK for the Channel Tunnel thanks to Deutsche Bahn’s tests a decade ago.

But the trains vary a lot in terms of how they are set up. Velaro and Frecciarossa are single deck, narrow body designs, with comparatively many doors that facilitate swift boarding (even for passengers with lots of luggage). TGV-M (a double deck design) and Avril (a wide body single deck design) are built to maximise capacity, but at the expense of boarding speed and space for luggage. There are impacts on acceleration too – with more powered axles, Velaro and Frecciarossa can accelerate to maximum speed faster than Avril or TGV-M. And there are issues regarding approval processes and waiting times were an operator to order these trains – Velaro and Frecciarossa are probably available in a 3-4 year timeframe, and recent experience shows both designs can be approved to run on French high speed lines with TVM430 signalling (also applies to HS1 in UK and LGV 1 in Belgium, and ETCS would be installed in any case) and through the Channel Tunnel. By contrast Avril has had all sorts of problems since its launch in Spain (and is still not approved in France) and Talgo has experienced delivery delays – going for Avril is hence a risk. And Alstom has had to keep pushing back the launch of TGV-M in France, and SNCF and private firm Proxima have more than 120 of them on order – so I cannot see anyone else getting a TGV-M before the early 2030s.

Question 4: ticket price and on board experience?
In both France (OUIGO) and Spain (Avlo) there are high speed no frills services – all standard class, and passengers can only bring comparatively limited amounts of luggage. In both cases this allows a 20% increase in seats on a TGV Duplex (634 vs 556 seats in a regular TGV) and Avril (581 vs 507 seats in a Avril in service as AVE). With the additional capacity TGV-M offers this could allow up to 1480 seats in a 400m long train (or 1162 in a 400m Avril), versus the 902 in multiple classes a 400m Eurostar e320 currently offers.

But there are problems here as well. Leisure travellers are those most likely to be put off by luggage restrictions, while higher ticket prices are less of a disincentive for business passengers. And cramming passengers in makes a train slower to board, especially at interim stops (see Question 2 above). And there is a further problem: tunnel operator Getlink levies a charge of €20.94 per passenger through the Channel Tunnel, regardless of the class or type of seat that passenger is sitting in – so that limits the scope of an operator to run a Ryanair-style operation, or a OUIGOstar if you like.

However the opposite – some cheap seats to attract leisure passengers, and some very deluxe grand offerings for business executives… looks very much like what Eurostar currently offers. And so in terms of service quality we have a rival looking very like the incumbent.

Conclusions
Based on what I know at the moment, I see only two sort of semi-viable models here. One is a multiple class train, which appeals to a broad spectrum of different travellers (including expensive deluxe seats), but offers stops at Ebbsfleet, Ashford or Calais-Fréthun as a differentiator, and uses fast boarding fast accelerating Velaro or Frecciarossa trains. The other is a semi-OUIGO model that undercuts Eurostar just enough in price to always be the cheaper option, but still offers an onboard experience that is pleasant enough for a two to three hour trip, perhaps with vending machines rather than full on board dining – and this would be done with TGV-M or possibly Avril trains. And unfortunately I can see no viable destinations other than Paris and Bruxelles in the short to medium term.