The Brexit deadline 31st October is just 32 days away. The House of Commons is sitting because prorogation was ruled unlawful and void by the Supreme Court. But UK politics is still on a knife edge because what will happen with Brexit is still unknown. The quandary is essentially this. […]
Yesterday pretty much all the Brexit commentators were poring over comments by Jean Claude Juncker that “we can have a deal”, and seeing the chances of a Deal rising. Meanwhile Mujtaba Rahman was trying to interpret Barclay’s words in a speech in Madrid, estimating that the opposite were true due […]
Oliver Letwin. Tom Watson. And Tony Blair. All of them have in the past fortnight suggested the UK should first hold a 2nd EU referendum, and only thereafter hold a General Election. This is the opposite of the prevailing thinking in Westminster – that is that first a General Election should happen, […]
tl:dr; Opposition parties want to call an election as soon as possible, but want that election to happen as late as possible. An unconventional route – via a Vote of No Confidence tabled next week (9th September) – offers a route to this. First of all: this is not my […]
At the time of writing, it looks like Boris Johnson is going to try to call an election on Monday 14th October, if the House of Commons (as expected) votes to stop a No Deal Brexit after sittings resume later today. Why Monday 14th October? That it’s a Monday is […]
Those of us who follow Brexit on an everyday basis have become obsessed by process. How, we ask ourselves, will the 14 day timetable imposed by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act post-Vote of No Confidence (VONC) play out with the required 5 or 6 weeks to hold a General Election, and […]
Fictitious scenario. The date is Monday 22 July, the day before Boris Johnson is expected to be approved leader of the Conservative Party, and two days before he is expected to go to the Palace to see the Queen. Jeremy Corbyn announces he will make a public speech, explaining Labour’s […]
At the Freudenstadt Symposium on European Regionalism this past weekend I was rather flummoxed by a nevertheless amusing question by someone in the audience. Are there any implausible, but still just about viable, Brexit scenarios you have not thought about? I was asked after I had presented my latest Brexit […]
In 2014 the race to become President of the European Commission – using the new Spitzenkandidat process – was a two-horse race, and months ahead everyone knew who would likely win – Jean-Claude Juncker (EPP). Martin Schulz (PES) put in energy and determination, but the EPP emerged as the largest party after […]
One of the consistent outcomes in my latest round of Brexit Diagrams has been to foresee a General Election as the most likely outcome of the Brexit process. “But a General Election is not an outcome!” has been the common retort from my readers. “Do any of us know how […]
So the Heads of State and Government put in an all-nighter at the European Council in Brussels. And this morning at the time of writing there is still no consensus as to who will get any of the EU’s top jobs, President of the European Commission foremost among the positions […]
So you want to go to the only place in the world that still has the hammer and sickle on its flag? A largely unrecognised state? One with a statue of Lenin in front of its Parliament? And you want to do that in 2019? And you want to do […]
Repeat: Johnson wants to deliver Brexit at any cost. DUP do not. This is the fundamental divide which could yet bring the edifice crashing down. https://t.co/1bVHxCGTr7
*If* solution is a customs border in Irish Sea (something Theresa May said no PM could accept), that’s going to make arithmetic UK side v hard
Lose the DUP (almost certain) and Johnson is going to need about 20 Labour MPs. And every single Tory (inc ERG).
Not going to work
Having spent time in 🇦🇱 & 🇲🇰 it really saddens me to see what’s happening to these countries’ accession efforts
There’s no sensible reason to not *start* talks with both!
I talked to @rte (Ireland’s national broadcaster) about the EU’s failure to respond positively to Albanian and North Macedonian aspirations to open membership negotiations.
France, in particular, is behaving appallingly.
https://t.co/J3efXPRlY9
