High resolution PDF and PNG files, the draw.io XML and the .ods files of the workings are all available here!
Hochauflösende PDF- und PNG-Dateien, draw.io-XML und die .ods-Dateien sind hier verfügbar!

 

Version 1.0.0 EN – 05.09.2021, 18:00
The first version of the new series! Based on the polling and modelling correct as of 5th September 2021. Click to enlarge.

Version 1.0.0 DE – 05.09.2021, 18:00
Die erste Version der neuen Serie! Basierend auf den Umfragen und Modellierungen, Stand 5. September 2021. Klicken um zu vergrößern.

You can find all my previous Brexit Diagrams here.

4 Comments

  1. Dan O'H

    I’m surprised you have such a low probability that the SPD would choose a 3-party coalition over GroKo. Given the SPD’s discontent at joining the current GroKo, isn’t there a chance they’ll go for visible change, even at the expense of trickier coalition negotiations? I would give that a 1 in 4 chance.

  2. Kleine Fehleranmerkung: Beide Diagramme verlinken auf die deutschsprachige Hires-Version

  3. That’s amazingly detailed work! Is the Red–Green scenario really a near zero probability outcome? Isn’t their combined share getting quite close to the threshold according to the most recent polls?

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