After the success of my two previous series of Brexit diagrams (5 diagrams in series 1 in January, 26 diagrams in series 2 between February and April) I took a little pause for a month after the decision was taken on 10 April 2019 to delay Brexit until 31 October 2019. I even told the New York Times I might stop making these diagrams…
But due to popular demand the diagrams are back!
This new series of diagrams tries to plot what will happen on the UK side primarily between May 2019 and the new Brexit deadline in October.
For each diagram 4 documents will be produced:
– the draw.io XML file
– a high resolution PNG file
– a scaleable PDF file
– the .ods file I use to calculate the odds
All of these documents will be uploaded to this folder each time – so please check there for the latest versions! Images will also be added to this blog post below, with the newest diagrams at the top.
Version numbers will change if the options on a diagram change. If only probabilities change, or minor spelling corrections are made, this will be a .x version.
As ever these diagrams are made based on how MPs have voted in the past, and using opinion polls as a means to predict how MPs and Tory activists will behave in the future. All of this needs some educated guessing. However the previous diagrams long predicted a Brexit delay as the most likely outcome, and that was what happened – so maybe there is some use to this!
Version 10.3 – 21.8.2019, 1330
George Peretz pointed out that I was missing a route – from legislative efforts to block No Deal succeeding through to a General Election by Johnson calling for an election. This has been added to the bottom right of the diagram, and necessitated some further redesign work.
Version 10.2 – 21.8.2019, 1230
Changes to odds in light of tactical observations on Twitter from Paul Mason. And some design changes too, to make it clearer that there can be earlier or later VONC routes.
Version 10.1 – 20.8.2019, 2200
There were two main reactions to version 10 – why is crashing out during an election campaign not accounted for (note added here), and will the EU grant a further extension? Both of those, and some minor design changes, are now in Version 10.1
Version 10 – 20.8.2019, 1200
OK, so I am back from 3 weeks of holiday, and have tried to get my head around what’s happening now – the Yellowhammer leak, stuttering efforts to get a caretaker government to be formed by Corbyn, but his rather categoric statements that a Vote of No Confidence will happen in September. All of this adds up to the chances of a General Election dropping a bit, and the chances that the UK can agree to nothing other than opposing No Deal increasing quite a lot. For the first time some detail of how at least a first VONC would go is added here.
Version 9 – 26.7.2019, 1430
Johnson managed to see his way through his first week. And we have some more idea what he might try to do now, and how the House of Commons will most likely seek to stop him. This is all reflected in the latest diagram – and this will be the last one until 19th August unless something major happens in the meantime. I need 🏝
Version 8 – 23.7.2019, 1700 BST (note times were CET on previous versions!)
So Boris Johnson has been appointed. I have now added what will happen in the days after his appointment to the overall picture. Also I had previously gone along with the UCL Constitution Unit blog’s conclusions re. Johnson and a majority, while here I have switched to this interpretation from Carl Gardner and others (0.8 probability) – all of that has negligible overall impact, but increases the chance of a General Election in the autumn rather than starting to plan for one now.
Version 7.1 – 11.7.2019, 1130
Now assuming Johnson will win (based on this by Political Betting), and drawing on this about No Confidence scenarios by the UCL Constitution Unit, and with more detail on timing from this by Jonathan Lis. There is a whole new section – to try to work out what happens if a PM Johnson cannot command the confidence of the House of Commons – but that ultimately does not make much difference to the overall probabilities – still at 66% chance of a General Election. The only question is whether that is called sooner or later. Also note that the .ods file uploaded to this folder has a new structure – you can change each node within it now, and see how that changes the overall probabilities.
Version 6 – 27.6.2019, 1130
Johnson is strengthening his position. But what happens were each of them to win? Three diagrams for that!
Version 6 – 25.6.2019, 1730
The final two are known – Johnson and Hunt. And Johnson has started to struggle. All on the latest diagram!
Version 5 – 13.6.2019, 1200
Tory MPs vote in the first round, with Johnson pulling ahead. This change is added to the diagram, but makes little difference to the overall outcome.
Version 4 – 9.6.2019, 1200
This is based on growing parliamentary support for Boris Johnson, notably from Brexit hardliner Steve Baker. It also increases the odds that a hardliner that isn’t Boris would lose a majority. The impact of this on the overall outcome? Just +/- 1% compared to version 3!
Version 2.2 – 27.5.2019, 1215
Probabilities adjusted based on reactions to the aftermath of the European Parliament elections in the UK. Paths in the diagram unchanged.
Version 2.1 – 25.5.2019, 1945
After Theresa May’s statement resigning as PM, and building on the betting about the Tory Leadership election and the announced procedure as to how that will work. (Version 2 had an error – the .ods was right, but I had put 26% rather than 23% for No Deal)
Version 1 – 22.5.2019, 1600
Published after Theresa May’s statement on 21.5, outlining her plan to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill through the Commons (essentially a 4th try to get her Brexit Deal approved). This was produced while rumours of May’s imminent demise is circulating but no news is confirmed.