NOTE! These are no longer the newest Brexit Diagrams! The new Series 4 can be found here. Series 3 also worked! Every diagram had a General Election as the most likely outcome, and that is what happened! After the success of my two previous series of Brexit diagrams (5 diagrams […]
At the Freudenstadt Symposium on European Regionalism this past weekend I was rather flummoxed by a nevertheless amusing question by someone in the audience. Are there any implausible, but still just about viable, Brexit scenarios you have not thought about? I was asked after I had presented my latest Brexit […]
So May has gone. Or at least said when she will go. Her statement today that she will stand aside on 7th June, together with the announcement by Brandon Lewis and others about the timetable for the leadership election that will conclude by mid July, gives us the framework. Into […]
Cowed and weakened after the events of the past few months, Theresa May will nevertheless stagger into the New Year as Prime Minister of the UK. And what she does between now and 17th (or possibly 21st) January will shape the path of Brexit – whether we like it or […]
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn might be atypical leaders of their respective parties, but in one way they are as traditional as they come: the extent to which they are partisan. Tribal. Defenders of their own parties above pretty much anything else. May emphasised her commitment to the party when […]
Even by the standards of the two and a half turbulent years since the Brexit referendum, the last 7 days have been quite something. Four major events shaped the week, and will shape what happens to Brexit now and – I think – perhaps not in the ways that many […]
Theresa May stumbles on. Disliked by all in equal measure, she nevertheless has managed to survive through an awful election result in 2017, to get a Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration signed off in Brussels and, most recently, has seen off a poorly organised putsch by the ERG group […]
OK, so it has been agreed. The Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration were signed off today in Brussels. Now Theresa May has to take this back to London and get it through the “meaningful vote” scheduled for 11 December sometime between 10th and 12th December in the House of Commons. […]
Sometime in 2000 or 2001 when I was still an undergraduate, Bogdanor and Butler had invited Jack Straw to one of their workshops about British politics at Brasenose College. Whether Labour might eventually get around to reforming the UK’s election system was all the rage back then, and Straw was […]
So there has been no progress on Brexit at the European Council that started last night and is carrying on today, and there will be no extra summit about Brexit mid-November either until Michel Barnier reports “decisive progress” in talks. I’d hoped it would not be so, and that a […]
A week from now leaders of the European Union’s 27+1 Member States will have sore heads after a long night. Friday 19th October will be the second day of the European Council at which the fate of the Brexit negotiations is to be decided. However hard it is, decide something […]
It took the UK government over 2 years from the EU referendum and a full 15 months from the start of the Article 50 period to decide its Brexit position – what became known as the Chequers Deal. But then Boris Johnson and David Davis promptly resigned within days, undermining […]