A Minister who had presided over a fiasco as major as Gavin Williamson has with the A-Level results algorithm problems would – in normal times – have either resigned or been sacked. A Special Adviser who had admitted a major breach of lockdown rules would – in normal times – […]
“He doesn’t like not being liked,” said Katie Perrior of Boris Johnson in this 2016 of the then outgoing Mayor of London in this 2016 essay by Jeremy Cliffe. Those words have stuck with me since reading that essay back then, and today it is perhaps time to revisit those […]
While I am still sceptical as to whether the UK would be ready to rejoin the EU any time soon, and likewise not convinced the EU should even have it back, an idea has been in the back of my mind as to how there could indeed be a route to […]
Boris Johnson gave a speech about the next stage of Brexit earlier this week in Greenwich. The initial reactions mostly focused on how this was the UK Government setting out its stall that was at odds with the line the Commission’s negotiator Barnier outlined the same day. Then there was […]
Yesterday pretty much all the Brexit commentators were poring over comments by Jean Claude Juncker that “we can have a deal”, and seeing the chances of a Deal rising. Meanwhile Mujtaba Rahman was trying to interpret Barclay’s words in a speech in Madrid, estimating that the opposite were true due […]
tl:dr; Opposition parties want to call an election as soon as possible, but want that election to happen as late as possible. An unconventional route – via a Vote of No Confidence tabled next week (9th September) – offers a route to this. First of all: this is not my […]
NOTE! These are no longer the newest Brexit Diagrams! The new Series 4 can be found here. Series 3 also worked! Every diagram had a General Election as the most likely outcome, and that is what happened! After the success of my two previous series of Brexit diagrams (5 diagrams […]
Those of us who follow Brexit on an everyday basis have become obsessed by process. How, we ask ourselves, will the 14 day timetable imposed by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act post-Vote of No Confidence (VONC) play out with the required 5 or 6 weeks to hold a General Election, and […]
Fictitious scenario. The date is Monday 22 July, the day before Boris Johnson is expected to be approved leader of the Conservative Party, and two days before he is expected to go to the Palace to see the Queen. Jeremy Corbyn announces he will make a public speech, explaining Labour’s […]
At the Freudenstadt Symposium on European Regionalism this past weekend I was rather flummoxed by a nevertheless amusing question by someone in the audience. Are there any implausible, but still just about viable, Brexit scenarios you have not thought about? I was asked after I had presented my latest Brexit […]
One of the consistent outcomes in my latest round of Brexit Diagrams has been to foresee a General Election as the most likely outcome of the Brexit process. “But a General Election is not an outcome!” has been the common retort from my readers. “Do any of us know how […]
So May has gone. Or at least said when she will go. Her statement today that she will stand aside on 7th June, together with the announcement by Brandon Lewis and others about the timetable for the leadership election that will conclude by mid July, gives us the framework. Into […]