Yesterday pretty much all the Brexit commentators were poring over comments by Jean Claude Juncker that “we can have a deal”, and seeing the chances of a Deal rising. Meanwhile Mujtaba Rahman was trying to interpret Barclay’s words in a speech in Madrid, estimating that the opposite were true due […]
tl:dr; Opposition parties want to call an election as soon as possible, but want that election to happen as late as possible. An unconventional route – via a Vote of No Confidence tabled next week (9th September) – offers a route to this. First of all: this is not my […]
NOTE! These are no longer the newest Brexit Diagrams! The new Series 4 can be found here. Series 3 also worked! Every diagram had a General Election as the most likely outcome, and that is what happened! After the success of my two previous series of Brexit diagrams (5 diagrams […]
Those of us who follow Brexit on an everyday basis have become obsessed by process. How, we ask ourselves, will the 14 day timetable imposed by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act post-Vote of No Confidence (VONC) play out with the required 5 or 6 weeks to hold a General Election, and […]
Fictitious scenario. The date is Monday 22 July, the day before Boris Johnson is expected to be approved leader of the Conservative Party, and two days before he is expected to go to the Palace to see the Queen. Jeremy Corbyn announces he will make a public speech, explaining Labour’s […]
At the Freudenstadt Symposium on European Regionalism this past weekend I was rather flummoxed by a nevertheless amusing question by someone in the audience. Are there any implausible, but still just about viable, Brexit scenarios you have not thought about? I was asked after I had presented my latest Brexit […]
One of the consistent outcomes in my latest round of Brexit Diagrams has been to foresee a General Election as the most likely outcome of the Brexit process. “But a General Election is not an outcome!” has been the common retort from my readers. “Do any of us know how […]
So May has gone. Or at least said when she will go. Her statement today that she will stand aside on 7th June, together with the announcement by Brandon Lewis and others about the timetable for the leadership election that will conclude by mid July, gives us the framework. Into […]
It’s pretty seldom I agree with Larry Elliott in The Guardian, but the headline of his recent piece – “Britons seem relatively relaxed in the face of Brexit apocalypse” – struck me as about right. Because there is not going to be a Brexit apocalypse. Or at least not in […]
It took the UK government over 2 years from the EU referendum and a full 15 months from the start of the Article 50 period to decide its Brexit position – what became known as the Chequers Deal. But then Boris Johnson and David Davis promptly resigned within days, undermining […]
When Theresa May delivered her Florence Speech a fortnight ago, my first reaction was “Is that it?” The speech had to outline something on citizens rights, the financial settlement to leave the EU, and on the Northern Ireland border, yet – especially on the last of these – it offered […]
So Theresa May is going to make her highly awaited speech in Florence tomorrow. There has been plenty of analysis and speculation about what she is and is not going to include. Here – in a blog post I will update as more sources are available – are some of […]