First let’s get a few things out of the way. This post concerns only two parties – the Liberal Democrats and Labour – and in one part of the UK – England. It also will not get drawn on who is to blame as to why there has been no […]
Brexit
Can I actually bring myself to vote Labour at the 2019 General Election? It’s harder than ever
I was a member of the Labour Party from 1996 until 2013 when I quit and joined the German Greens (I explained my choice at the time here). However having been away from the UK only since 2012, and not yet having got German citizenship (it’s being processed), I still […]
#BrexitDiagram Series 4 – Brexit and the 2019 UK General Election
I have been making flow diagrams since January 2019. Series 1 was more my effort to get to grips with this diagramming lark. Series 2 was the first with probabilities, and predicted a Brexit delay – and that’s what happened. Series 3 started after the European Elections in May 2019 […]
Extend Article 50 then oust Johnson? Or oust Johnson so as to guarantee the extension of Article 50? This week’s crucial question
The Brexit deadline 31st October is just 32 days away. The House of Commons is sitting because prorogation was ruled unlawful and void by the Supreme Court. But UK politics is still on a knife edge because what will happen with Brexit is still unknown. The quandary is essentially this. […]
The enduring value of #BrexitDiagram – what is important, and what happens in what order
Yesterday pretty much all the Brexit commentators were poring over comments by Jean Claude Juncker that “we can have a deal”, and seeing the chances of a Deal rising. Meanwhile Mujtaba Rahman was trying to interpret Barclay’s words in a speech in Madrid, estimating that the opposite were true due […]
Election then referendum? Or referendum then election? Brexit next steps
Oliver Letwin. Tom Watson. And Tony Blair. All of them have in the past fortnight suggested the UK should first hold a 2nd EU referendum, and only thereafter hold a General Election. This is the opposite of the prevailing thinking in Westminster – that is that first a General Election should happen, […]
How opposition parties can engineer a later general election, but get the election called before prorogation of Parliament
tl:dr; Opposition parties want to call an election as soon as possible, but want that election to happen as late as possible. An unconventional route – via a Vote of No Confidence tabled next week (9th September) – offers a route to this. First of all: this is not my […]
Arguments with superficial plausibility in the Brexit debate
At the time of writing, it looks like Boris Johnson is going to try to call an election on Monday 14th October, if the House of Commons (as expected) votes to stop a No Deal Brexit after sittings resume later today. Why Monday 14th October? That it’s a Monday is […]
Brexit – What Next? Brexit Diagrams Series 3
NOTE! These are no longer the newest Brexit Diagrams! The new Series 4 can be found here. Series 3 also worked! Every diagram had a General Election as the most likely outcome, and that is what happened! After the success of my two previous series of Brexit diagrams (5 diagrams […]
What actually ought to happen in matters Brexit now? Really long delay is the best bet
Most of my energy in the past few months has been invested in explaining what I think will happen with Brexit – mostly through my series of Brexit diagrams. This has left rather little mental capacity to think about what should happen. This is a blog post to try to address that. First […]
The UK might crash out of the EU. But that will not happen during a General Election campaign.
Those of us who follow Brexit on an everyday basis have become obsessed by process. How, we ask ourselves, will the 14 day timetable imposed by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act post-Vote of No Confidence (VONC) play out with the required 5 or 6 weeks to hold a General Election, and […]
The speech Jeremy Corbyn should give on 22 July about Johnson and Brexit
Fictitious scenario. The date is Monday 22 July, the day before Boris Johnson is expected to be approved leader of the Conservative Party, and two days before he is expected to go to the Palace to see the Queen. Jeremy Corbyn announces he will make a public speech, explaining Labour’s […]