I have tried to make sense of Brexit through a series of flow diagrams that have evolved as Brexit decisions have been taken. This blog post gathers those diagrams together, the newest versions first. In each case click the image to see the full resolution version.

All diagrams are made with draw.io. If you want to use these files for your own purposes, feel free – everything is Creative Commons Sharealike licensed. Dutch news site did precisely that here!

There are two sets of diagrams – the ones around the 29th January vote on amendments to Theresa May’s Brexit plan are at the top of this post (high res versions, draw.io XML files, and probability calculations in .ods files can be found here), and the earlier ones relating to the Meaningful Vote below (high res versions and draw.io XML files of those can can be found here).

Version 19.1 – 15.3.2019, 1900
Adjustments and detail after version 19

Version 19 – 15.3.2019, 1800
Post Bercow ruling out a Meaningful Vote on an unchanged Brexit Deal (but presuming the Kyle-Wilson Amended version would be allowed)

Version 18.1 – 15.3.2019, 1100
After all the votes 12-14 March.

Version 17 – 14.3.2019, 0900
After the vote in the Commons to reject No Deal. But No Deal is still possible.

Version 16 – 13.3.2019, 1730
After Meaningful Vote 2.

Version 15.1 – 12.3.2019, 1445
Before Meaningful Vote 2. After Cox said “legal risk remains unchanged”

Version 14 – 7.3.2019, 1720
Adding the prospect of a 3rd “Meaningful Vote”.

Version 13.1 – 7.3.2019, 1315
Adjusting accumulative probabilities, and adjustments at the top based on the news that there has been no progress in Brussels this week.

Version 12 – 27.2.2019, 1000
Adding accumulative probabilities, and adding the idea that the EU might pre-emptively offer the UK an extension. Design also more compact.

Version 11 – 26.2.2019, 1830
Cooper-Letwin Amendment withdrawn

Version 10 – 25.2.2019, 2120
Incorporating Corbyn backing a People’s Vote

Version 9 – 24.2.2019, 1730
So May has said there will be no Meaningful Vote in February. So there’s a new diagram!

Version 8 – 23.2.2019, 0900
This one takes into account the emergence of the Indepedent Group, and what might happen if and when the UK requests an extension of Article 50

Version 7 – 15.2.2019, 1910

Version 6 – 4.2.2019, 1030

Version 5 – 29.1.2019, 2200

Version 4.3 – 29.1.2019, 1150

Version 3.2 – 27.1.2019, 2205

Version 2.1 – 27.1.2019, 2025

Version 1 – 27.1.2019
(this one really did not work! It needed a major rethink for version 2, above!)

Version 5.2 – 17.1.2019, 1330

Version 5.1 – 17.1.2019, 1300

Version 5 – 16.1.2019, 2115

Version 4 – 16.1.2019, 1815

Version 3 – 16.1.2019, 0930

Version 2.1 – 13.1.2019, 1330

Version 2 – 13.1.2019, 1240

Version 1.2 – 12.1.2019, 1850

Version 1.1 – 12.1.2019, 1810

Version 1 – 12.1.2019, 1440

You can of course opt for the David Landon Cole simplified version!

8 Comments

  1. Fascinating visualization! Is there any particular reason why you didn’t put cumulative probabilities to the final scenarios (i.e., the orange boxes)? Of course, one could do the math based on all the branch probabilities already, but why force the lazy reader to do it. Great work already, of course.

  2. anonymous

    Hmm, interesting that your pinball machine gives the counterintuitive outcome that if May plays well in Brussels, the probability of No Deal actually increases. Counterintuitive, at least for me.

  3. anonymous

    Version 7 of 15 February still shows the old 4 Feb image?

    Thanks for all these, Jon!

  4. Charlotte Delsignore

    Hi Jon

    I came across your latest blog post via Twitter and shared the link of this post into a comment on Jason J Hunter’s Facebook page (former international trade negotiator who has appeared on BBC news multiple times discussing the dangers of Brexit) because I think he and his followers would find it useful. Immediately on posting this comment, I received an alert from Facebook stating that my comment goes against Community Standards and my post is not visible to anyone. I have requested a review from Facebook. Any ideas on why they will not allow me to post your blog??? It feels suspicious! Cheers, Charlotte
    (p.s. my post simply read, “Jon Worth has created this comprehensive flow chart of all possible Brexit paths. Worth a look. LINK”

    • Dear Charlotte – thanks for the comment, and that is rather odd! I cannot think of any reason why that would happen, and have indeed posted these diagrams to Facebook myself. Could you maybe download one of the high res images and then post that?

Leave a Comment

Your e-mail address will not be published. Required fields are marked *